Search probate leads vs pre-foreclosure leads and you will meet the same statistic within about thirty seconds: that some precise share of probate properties — usually quoted around 60% — is owned free and clear. It is repeated on vendor pages, in webinars, and in a lot of confident advice. It is also a number that cannot come from where people imply it comes from, and understanding why is the fastest way to understand how these two lead types actually differ.
Florida law bars the probate file from telling you that. It requires the foreclosure file to tell you the opposite. Everything else — the houses, the timelines, the person you negotiate with — follows from that one asymmetry.
The record asymmetry nobody mentions
A Florida mortgage foreclosure complaint has to put the debt on the table. Under F.S. 702.015(2), the plaintiff must either affirmatively allege that it "is the holder of the original note secured by the mortgage" or "allege with specificity the factual basis by which the plaintiff is a person entitled to enforce the note." If the plaintiff holds that original note, subsection (4) requires a certification filed under penalty of perjury, and "correct copies of the note and all allonges to the note must be attached to the certification."
The probate file does the reverse. Under F.S. 733.604(1)(b)1, "Any inventory of an estate, whether initial, amended, or supplementary, filed with the clerk of the court in conjunction with the administration of an estate is confidential and exempt from s. 119.07(1) and s. 24(a), Art. I of the State Constitution." Accountings get the same treatment under subsection (1)(b)3. The estate's asset and debt schedule is filed with the court and then closed to you.
So the honest version is this: a pre-foreclosure filing is itself a statement about a mortgage, and a probate filing is not a statement about the house at all. Any "X% of probate homes are free and clear" figure is an inference from somewhere else, and whoever quotes it owes you the source. We are not going to publish one either — not because the answer is uninteresting, but because we would be guessing, and a guess with a decimal point in it is still a guess.
What the property records do show
What can be measured is the house. Below are the 5,662 single-family and condominium properties tied to live probate-path and pre-foreclosure filings across Collier, Lee, Pinellas and Sarasota counties since 1 May 2026, set against all 1,162,605 single-family and condo parcels in those same four counties.
| Measure | Estate path (n=3,970) | Pre-foreclosure (n=1,692) | All parcels (n=1,162,605) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median just value | $338,428 | $271,415 | $325,239 |
| Median assessed value | $226,544 | $241,638 | $262,816 |
| Assessed as % of just value | 66.9% | 89.0% | 80.8% |
| Carries a homestead exemption | 81.3% | 56.5% | 58.2% |
| Median years since last sale of $1,000+ | 16 | 6 | 8 |
| Held 20 years or more | 44.3% | 17.4% | 22.5% |
| Condominium | 28.6% | 22.0% | — |
| Median year built | 1987 | 1988 | — |
The two cohorts are the same vintage of house — 1987 against 1988 — so none of this is an age-of-stock effect. What separates them is who has been living there and for how long. The estate property is worth more than the average home in these counties and assessed at two-thirds of what it is worth; the pre-foreclosure property is worth less than average and assessed at nearly the full amount. That gap is Save Our Homes, and it is the arithmetic signature of a long-held residence. We took the tenure measure apart in detail in Florida homeowner tenure.
The practical read: an estate property is far more likely to be a long-held primary residence that has never been refinanced into a modern payment, and a pre-foreclosure is far more likely to be a recent purchase with a recent mortgage. Note also what the pre-foreclosure column is not — at 56.5% homestead against a 58.2% baseline, it is an almost perfectly ordinary house. The distressed-property stereotype does not survive contact with the assessment roll.
Who can actually sign
This is where Florida probate leads and pre-foreclosure leads stop resembling each other.
In a pre-foreclosure, the owner still owns the house. Title does not move until the very end: under F.S. 45.031(5) the clerk files a certificate of title if no objections are filed within 10 days after the certificate of sale, and under subsection (6), "When the certificate of title is filed the sale shall stand confirmed, and title to the property shall pass to the purchaser named in the certificate." Until that filing you are dealing with one person who can sign, under a deadline that is a matter of public record.
On the estate side, authority is conditional. Under F.S. 733.613(2), a personal representative whose will grants a power of sale "may sell, mortgage, or lease, without authorization or confirmation of court, any real property of the estate." Without that power, subsection (1) is blunt: "No title shall pass until the court authorizes or confirms the sale." Two estates that look identical from the docket can be weeks apart on closing depending on a clause in a document you have not read.
Then there is the homestead trap, and our table is the reason to take it seriously. F.S. 733.607(1) gives the personal representative the right to take possession of the decedent's property "except the protected homestead." Protected homestead in probate is not the same thing as the exemption on the tax roll, and one does not prove the other — but 81.3% of estate-path properties carry that exemption against a 58.2% baseline, which tells you the question comes up on most of these files, not a few. The person who answers the phone may not be the person who can convey. We cover the mechanics in Florida homestead and probate.
How many of each Florida actually produces
Volume decides whether a channel is worth building a process around. In FY 2024-25, Florida's circuit courts logged 67,808 probate petitions statewide, against 12,651 homestead residential and 8,493 non-homestead residential foreclosure filings — 21,144 residential foreclosure filings in total (OSCA Circuit Probate; OSCA Circuit Civil). Those are petitions and complaints rather than distinct houses, and plenty of probate petitions involve no real property at all, so read the ratio as direction rather than a count of doors.
Our own four counties point the same way, and the local spread is wider than the statewide figure suggests. Estate-path filings outnumbered pre-foreclosures 4.2 to 1 in Sarasota, 2.5 to 1 in Pinellas, 2.0 to 1 in Collier — but only 1.7 to 1 in Lee. A mail budget built on the statewide average will be wrong in both directions depending on which county you actually work.
Which one fits your business
Neither type is better. They reward different operations.
Pre-foreclosure rewards speed and certainty. One signature, a published deadline, and a debt figure that is on the record rather than inferred. That combination suits fix-and-flip buyers who need to underwrite quickly and know exactly what has to be paid off. The cost is competition and a thinner margin — the deadline that helps you is visible to everyone else, and at 89.0% assessed-to-just value there is less hidden room in the property.
The estate path rewards patience and follow-through. Longer timelines, more people around the table, and authority that may need a court order. What you get in exchange is a house that has usually been held for 16 years, is worth more than the neighbourhood average, and is not being tracked by a countdown clock that pulls in every investor in the county. That suits wholesalers and buy-and-hold operators who can run a sequence over months instead of days.
If you are choosing one to start with, choose the one that matches your follow-up capacity, not the one with the better-sounding statistic. And if you work both, treat them as separate playbooks — the same letter sent to a personal representative and to an owner three weeks from an auction is wrong for at least one of them.
See both, in your county
PocketLeads aggregates probate and pre-foreclosure filings from Florida county courts and delivers each one with the property record, owner names and contact details — the same day. Each lead type is its own subscription, so you can start with the one that fits your operation and add the other when your process is ready. Start your free trial and see what is filing in your county this week.
Frequently asked questions
Are probate properties really mortgage-free more often than pre-foreclosures?
A pre-foreclosure by definition has a mortgage in default, so the honest comparison is against ordinary homes rather than against pre-foreclosures. Beyond that, the probate court file will not answer it: the estate inventory is confidential under F.S. 733.604(1)(b)1. Treat any precise percentage you see quoted as unsourced unless the publisher shows you where it came from.
Which lead type closes faster?
Pre-foreclosure, in most cases. There is one owner who can sign and a deadline set by the court. An estate sale may require court authorization or confirmation under F.S. 733.613(1) when the will grants no power of sale, which adds time that is outside your control.
Why are estate properties assessed so far below their value?
Save Our Homes caps annual increases in assessed value on homesteaded property, so the gap widens the longer someone stays. At a median 16 years of ownership, estate-path properties in our four counties are assessed at 66.9% of just value against 89.0% for pre-foreclosures. That gap resets for the buyer after a change of ownership, which belongs in your underwriting.
Does a homestead exemption on the tax roll mean the house is protected homestead in probate?
No. They are different tests, and the exemption on the assessment roll does not establish protected homestead status under F.S. 733.607(1). It is a signal that the question needs answering on that file, not an answer.
Can I still buy a pre-foreclosure after the auction is scheduled?
Yes. The owner holds title until the clerk files the certificate of title under F.S. 45.031(6). A sale can be negotiated up to that point, though the payoff and timing get harder as the date approaches. See our guide to buying a pre-foreclosure home in Florida.
Should a new investor start with one or work both?
Start with one. The two require different follow-up rhythms, different letters and different expectations about who can sign. Running both badly is slower than running one well, and the fastest way to pick is to look at the filing ratio in your own county rather than the statewide average.